The aim of this study is to determining the factors which could affect the credit scoring to reveal the relationship between economical policies implemented in Turkey and the credit ratings given by credit scoring agencies with econometrics method along with comparisons among countries. When the countries own resources are not enaugh to finance economical growth, countries are needed for foreign investments.These foreign investments are wanted by countries as direct foreign investments or financial investments. Both kinds want to have a trust on types of economies to invest on them. For this reason it is needed to have a indicator for safety of a country to invest .The most important indicator developed for this purpose is credit rate. Thus, figures of GDP, Current Account Balance, Foreign Borrowing and Inflation of Turkey in the year of the 2000-2015 using parametric and semiparametric logit models. The semiparametric methods best fitting models using best fitting smoothing methods when the combines that best features of the parametric and nonparametric approaches when the parametric model violated. We used the data of IMF World Economic Outlook Database and IMF Article IV countries reports, Moody’s,Standart&Poors and Fitch main reports on site.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the lead-lag effect between two indices on the HONG-KONG stock market. This analysis is applied to daily data from 14/04/2003 to 10/10/2014. The results show that the more liquid index leads the less liquid. These results are consistent with those shown by the impulse response function. These results concluded that the predictability of less liquid index by more liquid index returns. In these studies, we can conclude that the lead-lag effect can generate a predictability of returns of the two indices of Hong-Kong stock exchange in the case of daily data.

The degree of intense competition in banking industry of Bangladesh is going to manifold in the current decade. The competition goes not only to capture market share but also to differentiate in offerings and services. The paper has empirically examined the relationship between implementing SWOT analysis and achieving competitive advantage in the sample banks. The study covered six banks i.e., three govt. and three private commercial banks operating in Chittagong district of Bangladesh. The samples consisted of bank branch executives taking six executives of each branch of the study areas. The technique of purposive sampling was used to select the sample respondents where the questionnaire consisted of 12 items that measure the dimensions of competitive advantage and 13 items that represent the process of SWOT analysis. The result of study showed significant correlation between SWOT analysis and dimensions of competitive advantage i.e., speed, quality, flexibility, and cost-benefit. The Co-efficient of Correlation is 0.69. Again, the competitive advantage is a strategic goal and it is a dependent variable. The paper identified that the good performance of a bank was dependent on internal as well as external variables and it was related to achieve a competitive advantage in the sample banks. Thus, for achieving competitive advantage in competitive market, the sample banks may take care of carrying out SWOT analysis on a continuous basis for facing its threats and weaknesses as well as creating opportunities and strengths. The study suggested some strategies for increasing its strengths, opening new opportunities, on one hand and overcoming weaknesses; and resisting threats through choosing areas of improvement like delivery of banking services to the customers at minimum cost, prompt one stop service, flexibility and adaptability in offering competitive banking products, IT based infra-structural facilities, building leadership skills and personality development of bank executives through training on a continuous basis, for sample banks in particular and banking industry of Bangladesh in general.

The philosophy of Economics and economic policy were developed by Xenophon in Ancient Greece. Alexander the Great was living a little later in the 4th century B.C. and we know him as a great Hellen king, civilizer, and “forerunner”; but, he was, an excellent economist because he had to manage the economy of his enormous campaign from Greece to India and to exercise an efficient and effective public policy for his vast Empire. Also, “he desired not pleasure or wealth, but only excellence and glory”, which was the moral and ethical Greek philosophy of his time. Alexander had said that “…I am grateful to gods that I was borne Hellen…” and had all these Hellenic values, which made him one of the most important person in human history. He had shown outstanding management capabilities, with rates of salaries, health and welfare, building projects, supplies, transports, reforms of the tax system, indirect taxes and donations, loans, minting of coins, even controlling financial scandals and other information useful for our policy makers, today. We measure his budgets by using the weights of gold and silver coins and determine and compare prices by taking these information from different historians of his time. Alexander economic policy with its surpluses is very useful for our current leaders and scholars. Also, the history and the role of this extraordinary man and the contribution of the Greek civilization and language in God’s plan, for His revolted and deluded creation and humanity to be in a position to understand and accept His revelation, which Greeks were expecting since the Golden Century of Athens, is discussed.

The main objective of this study is to determine the impact of oil price volatility on macroeconomic variables and sustainable development in Nigeria. The significant role of oil in the Nigerian economy cannot be overestimated. Though there are studies by other researchers on oil prices and macroeconomic variables, their findings are contentious and country-specific. Our literature review and methodology shade lights on these positions. We used secondary time series data in a vector auto regression analysis. We found that fluctuations in oil prices do substantially affect the real GDP, exchange rates, Unemployment, Balance of payments and interest rates in Nigeria. Negative shocks in the international oil market, have significant impact on price fluctuations. Due to increased imports in the Nigerian economy, inflationary pressures are inevitable and are pronounced. Government revenues and expenditures have decreased significantly. We recommend diversification of the economy and energy sources for sustainable development in Nigeria.

Given the continued poor performance experienced in the banking sector as indicated by high levels of credit risk, poor quality loans and high incidence of non-performing loans, in spite of the frequent reforms that various governments in Nigeria have embarked upon, there is the need to constantly examine and analyse the factors that could affect bank performance with the aim of providing empirical evidence based on which solutions can be proffered. The paper examined the impact of asset quality management on the performance of deposit money banks in Nigeria. The paper adopted the ECM and co-integration techniques using annual aggregate data sourced from the CBN and the NDIC publications for the period 1990-2013. The findings of the study indicate that the selected measures of asset quality have significant impact on all the three indicators of bank performance namely- return on equity, return on total assets and return on shareholders’ fund respectively. In addition, the results of the impulse response and variance decomposition show that own shocks from the performance indicators ROE, ROTA and ROSF account for a greater proportion of the forecast errors of the variables within the ten-year forecast period. In the light of the above, it is recommended that deposit money banks in Nigeria should intensify their efforts in designing and implementing good asset quality management policies in order to further improve on their performance. This can be through human capacity building for personnel in the form of frequent professional training as well as strict adherence to the prudential guidelines.

This study investigates cash holding behavior of Tunisian firms over the period of 2003-2013. We attempted to identify the different determinants of the corporate cash holding. We are focusing on the importance of cash flow, the effect of the leverage, other liquid assets, the ability to access to capital markets and the growth opportunities. Our results show that both trade off theory and pecking order theory are important to explain the determinants of cash holding of Tunisian companies. Generally, the results of our study support the tradeoff theory of cash holding. The motif of precaution and transaction are important in explaining the determinants of cash for Tunisian companies. Leverage, managerial ownership, growth opportunities, size, cash flow and liquid assets are important determinants of cash holding of Tunisian companies.

This study investigated loans default (problems loans) and returns on assets in Nigeria banks, employing the data of five banks for a period of five years (2010-2014), using the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression techniques to check the relationship between problem loans and returns on assets (ROA). The findings shows that a positive and significant relationship at 5% level of significance exist between problem loans and returns on assets, and a negative and significant relationship at 10% level of significance exists between loans and advances and returns on assets in Nigerian banks. A major suggestion is that banks in Nigeria should enhance their capacity in credit analysis and loan administration, while the regulatory authority should pay more attention to banks’ compliance to relevant provisions of Bank and other Financial Institutions Act (1991) and prudential guidelines.

This study examined the impact of Bank credits to agricultural and manufacturing sectors on economic growth in Nigeria using annual time series data from 1970-2013. Using co-integration and error correction mechanism for the analysis, the study revealed that a long run relationship exists between Bank credits to agricultural and manufacturing sectors and economic growth. Given the error correction mechanism results, the study showed that Bank credits to agricultural sector exhibited an insignificant negative impact on economic growth while Bank credits to manufacturing sector exhibited a negative significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Based on these findings, the study recommends among others: Bank Credits to the Agricultural and Manufacturing Sectors should be properly monitored to ensure that funds meant for agricultural and manufacturing activities are not diverted for other purposes, Intending recipients of these Bank credits to the agricultural and manufacturing sectors should be made to undergo entrepreneurial training and how to pay back as at when due, so as to reduce the risks associated in giving out these Credits to the Agricultural and Manufacturing Sectors entrepreneurs.

Liquidity risk is one of the major risks inherent in the banking business. It occurs when the bank does not have sufficient liquid assets to meet its commitments at the time of their occurrence. The most critical challenges confronting financial institutions when managing liquidity risk is so-called non-maturity accounts. These accounts are characterized by the fact that they have no specific contractual maturity, and their risk management is complicated by the embedded options that depositors may exercise. As part of an asset-liability management and for the purpose of healthy and prudential management of a liquidity risk, each bank must properly assess the deposits of its customers. Liquidity risk is not the risk that there are massive withdrawals, but the risk they are unanticipated. In this paper, we apply two methods to model non-maturity deposits of a Moroccan commercial bank. We treat separately individual deposits and enterprise deposits aiming an accurate analysis. We then select between the models by means of a selection criteria. Furthermore, we back-test and forecast future deposits using the selected model. Finally, we model the decay rates of non-maturity deposits by elaborating a flowing function of these latter.

The government of Ghana replaced Sales and Services Tax with Value Added Tax (VAT)) in March 1998 with the aim of widening the tax net and improving the efficiency of tax administration. It has been 17 years since VAT was introduced in Ghana, but the VAT systems have not achieved most of its objectives due to many compliance challenges. VAT strives on voluntary compliance and accurate bookkeeping because VAT is self-assessed. This paper examines the various compliance challenges facing VAT administration in Ghana and makes recommendations for improving voluntary compliance and efficient VAT administration. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with VAT Administrators and taxable persons to ascertain their perceptions on the major challenges confronting compliance and how best to address them. The study found out that VAT compliance is low partly because VAT registration and filing procedures are too complex for the small traders. Also most businesses fail to keep proper books of accounts on which accurate VAT assessment could be done. In addition many taxpayers fail to comply because they have negative perception about how the government uses tax revenue. The paper makes many recommendations that could be implemented to improve VAT compliance in Ghana. These include implementation of electronic VAT registers; simplification of VAT registration and filing procedures, decentralization and ensuring regular VAT Audits.

In a recessionary and deflationary framework, the discretionary monetary policy cannot be optimal when the interest rate is already near zero and cannot decrease anymore. Indeed, when the Zero Lower Bound is binding, a negative demand shock implies a decrease in the current economic activity level and deflationary tensions, which cannot be avoided by monetary policy as the nominal interest rate can no longer decrease. The economic literature has then often recommended to target an inflation rate sufficiently above zero in order to avoid the dangers of this Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) constraint. On the contrary, provided the ZLB is not binding, monetary policy can efficiently contribute to the stabilization of economic activity and inflation in case of demand shocks. The variation in interest rates is then all the more accentuated as interest rate smoothing is a more negligible goal for the central bank. The contribution of our paper is to provide a clear analytical New-Keynesian framework sustaining these results. Besides, our analytical modelling also shows that even if the ZLB is currently not binding, the central bank should take into account the dangers of a potential future binding ZLB. Indeed, the interest rate should be decreased the fastest as a negative demand shock and the possibility to reach the ZLB is anticipated for a nearest future period. Our paper demonstrates the necessity of such a ‘pre-emptive’ active monetary policy even in a discretionary framework, which has the advantage to be time-consistent and to be in conformity with the empirical practices of independent central banks. We don’t have to make the strong hypothesis of a commitment monetary policy intended to affect private agents’ expectations in order to demonstrate the optimality of such a pre-emptive monetary policy.

This study examined the relationship between interest rate and economic growth in Nigeria, using secondary time series panel data for the period 1985 – 2014. Data was collected from various issues of the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and the National Bureau of Statistics. The study employed Augmented Dicker-Fuller (ADF) unit root tests as well as Johansen co-integration test followed by Error Correlation Model (ECM) approach. The ADF unit root test results indicated that the variables are all stationary at first difference. The variables were integrated of order one (1) which implies that the null hypothesis of non-stationary for all the variables of interest is rejected. The Johansen co-integration test result revealed the existence of two co-integrating relationship between the variables at 5% level of significance. The study proceeded to perform the ECM approach and found that interest rate is inversely related to economic growth, but the relationship is statistically insignificant. The recommended that monetary authorities should adopt appropriate polices that would promote and stimulate economic growth in Nigeria.

Financial reporting quality has been said to play an important role in reducing information asymmetry. Thus, firms with high financial reporting quality may enhance more investors’ decision. Hence, the basic objective of this study is to determine whether earnings quality influence investors’ decision. The sample consisted of 10 manufacturing companies listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market. The study period is 5 years (2010-2014). Data on accrual quality, volume of investment, Size, age and growth rate and earnings per share were drawn from the published annual report and accounts of the sampled companies. Correlation matrix, Vector auto regressive estimation and Pooled OLS model were employed for the analysis. Diagnostic tests for post estimation were also performed on the model. The result of the Ramsey Reset test shows a p-value of 0.2105, implying that model has no omitted variables. Also, Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data indicates no first-order autocorrelation, showing a p-value of 0.3642. We calculated accruals quality based on the modified accrual model proposed by Mac Nichols in 2002. In this paper, the absolute value of residual error represents the financial reporting quality. This threshold is based on the idea that accruals reduce the smoothing initiated by the change in the cash flow and thus increase the earnings awareness. The study finds evidence of a positive association between investors’ decision and financial reporting quality.

This paper analysed the forecasting ability of yield-curve as a predictor of the short-run fluctuations in economic activities in Namibia. The study employed the techniques of unit root, cointegration, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition on the quarterly data covering the period 1996 to 2015. The results revealed a negative relationship between the term structure of interest rates and economic activities, though statistically insignificant. This suggests that the yield-curve has no forecasting ability as a predictor of economic activity in Namibia.

The paper analyses the history and current status of financial inclusion in Malawi and its associated impact on individual, societal, and overall nation development. Through a review of past literature on financial inclusion and a survey on individuals’ opinions on financial services availability and affordability, the study reveals that financial inclusion has a direct relationship with economic performance and that individual economic independence, financial literacy, and accessibility play crucial roles in determining the levels of financial inclusion in an economy.

Oil, a very versatile and flexible non-productive, depleting, natural (hydrocarbon) resource is a fundamental input to modern economic activities providing about 50 percent of the total energy demanded in the world apart from the former centrally planned economy. The countries dealing with oil exploiting in the world depend heavily on oil revenue for foreign exchange earnings and for the government budget, in most cases, reaching 90 percent or above. Few studies have been carried out in this regard yet there is no conclusion as to the key factors that determine economic growth. This study determines the influence of Oil revenue on economic growth of Nigeria. The study uses domestic consumption and export as proxies for Oil revenue, and represents economic growth with real gross domestic product. Using 33 years time series observations, the study used Ordinary least square method. The study covers the period from 1980 to 2013. Secondary data source was acquired from the central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical bulletin. The study found that both domestic consumption and export has positive and significant influence on economic growth of Nigeria. The study recommends that, the domestic consumption and crude oil export sales should be increased in order to have the gross domestic product increased as this will put the country on a better scale. But this will have to be done by balancing the domestic consumption with the export of oil.

This paper investigates the link between forecast disparity and macroeconomic instability that results from the data revision of GDP and inflation in Japan. The recent Japanese case, which reflects the unconventional monetary policy conducted since 2013, is also examined. The empirical results show that such disparities do not cause economic instability; however, they have have done so after the unconventional and drastic monetary policy was conducted. On the other hand, exchange rates impacted economic stability for the total period. For the first part of the period under study (from 2000 to 2012), currency appreciation caused instability; however, for the more recent period, depreciation has caused such instability. Recently, macroeconomic instability has been linked with exchange rate movements.

The long run impact of climate change on the productivity of major crops in the districts of Punjab is analyzed for the time period of 1970 to 2010. This study used deviations from average maximum annual temperature and deviations from average rainfall are used as indicators for climate change. While other variables include sale price, fertilizer use and number of tube wells. In order to incorporate long timer periods, this study used Panel ARDL model. The results show that cotton productivity is more positively sensitive to price changes; an increase in temperature, tube wells and fertilizers while wheat productivity is more positively sensitive to the rainfall in the long run. Consequently, in the short run, wheat productivity equilibrium is faster converging. Hence deviations from average rainfall are harmful to cotton crop in the long run and cotton & wheat in the short run, while deviations in maximum temperature is only harmful for cotton crop in the short run.

Budget is a financial and non-financial framework in terms of cash flows that guides governments, private organizations and individuals in achieving their desired objectives in a particular period if it is properly, adequately and realistically prepared. The long standing and familiar incremental budget has been faulted by various stakeholders hence, the contemplation for an alternative system known as zero-based budgeting (ZBB). The first objective of this study is to find out whether or not the theoretical benefits accruable to ZBB can motivate the governments’ ministries, departments and agencies to adopt and implement the proposed new system? The second objective is to determine whether or not the budgeting system has any relationship with budget implementation. Questionnaire was used in collecting data from the budget stakeholders. Descriptive statistics and simple regression were adopted in analyzing the data. It is established that the theoretical benefits accruable to ZBB can influence the adoption and implementation of the proposed ZBB. It is also revealed that the proposed budgeting system has a strong relationship with implementation. The study recommends that, despite the support for the ZBB, the current incremental budgeting system would have to be reviewed for reference into adopting and implementing the ZBB since it will be the basis for the new system. It is also recommended that the coming into operation of the new system should be a gradual process in the form of test running it to address the acknowledged challenges in the proposed system before it can be fully implemented. In addition, there should be seriousness in the whole exercise.

Accounting scandals and frauds are perennial; they have occurred in all eras, in all countries and affected millions of corporations. Unfortunately, there are few loopholes in accounting and auditing standards, which provide leeway and thus motivate accounting professionals to use aggressively manipulation practices. In fact, accounting manipulation (AM) involves the intentional cooking-up of financial records towards a pre-determined target. Every company indeed maneuvers the numbers, to a certain extent, as formally reported in its financial statements (FS) to achieve budgetary targets and generously reward senior managers. From Enron, WorldCom to Satyam, it appeared that window-dressing leading to AM is a serious problem that is increasing both in its frequency and severity, which undermines the integrity of financial reports and eroded investors’ confidence. The responsibility of preventing, detecting and investigating financial frauds rests squarely on Board of Directors and they should adopt preventive steps. Despite the raft of CG, and financial disclosure reforms, corporate accounting still remains murky and companies continue to find ways to play ‘hide-and-seek’ game with the system. Satyam computers were once the crown jewel of Indian IT-industry but were brought to the ground by its founders in 2009 as a result of financial manipulations in FS. The present study provides a snapshot of how Mr. Raju (CEO and Chairman) mastermind this maze of AM practices? Undoubtedly, Satyam scam is illegal and unethical in which computers were cleverly used to manipulate account books by creating fake invoices, inflating revenues, falsifying the cash and bank balances, showing non-existent interest on fixed deposits, showing ghost employees, and so on. Satyam fraud has shattered the dreams of investors, shocked the government and regulators and led to questioning of the accounting practices of auditors and CG norms in India. Finally, we recommend that “All types of AM practices should be legally recognized as a serious crime, and accounting bodies, law courts and regulatory authorities must adopt exemplary punitive measures to prevent such unethical practices.”

Corporate finance manager must take economic and financial decision aimed at maximizing the value creation of the company and also shareholders wealth. Merger and acquisition have been identified as means of survival strategy and sustainable business growth in a distress economy rather than outright liquidation. The study employed an ex-post facto research design with a focus population of twenty four deposit money banks classified into two groups of ten trouble and fourteen sound banks. Six banks that have gone through the second round of consolidation were selected using purposive sampling technique for period of seven years (2008-2014). CAMEL indicators were used to proxy merger and acquisition input while business growth was proxied using performance measurement of ROA. The study employed both descriptive and inferential statistic using multiple regression analysis and analysis of variance to determine whether there is significant relationship between the pre and post-merger CAMEL indicator and performance measures. The study observed a mixed relationship of merger and acquisition proxy by CAMEL on business growth proxy by ROA across the sampled banks. The study concluded that merger and acquisition as survival strategy and sustainable business growth has failed to produce the desired synergistic effects among the sample banks. This negates the theoretical and financial believe that merger and acquisition automatically leads to synergistic gain and value creation for shareholders. The study recommended that the specific input into merger and acquisition in bank the CAMEL indicators should be managed better to have a positive relationship with business growth. Also the bank’s management should be proactive in product diversification, risk management and enhancement of good corporate governance practices.