Abstract :Background: The management of pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasia (IPMN) is
dependent on their risk of malignant progression to invasive IPMN. Recently a 5- point scoring
system has been proposed as a useful clinical tool to predict the malignancy of IPMNs; however, this
tool has not been validated. Here, we investigate the ability of the 5 point scoring system to predict
malignancy in patients with IPMNs who had surgical resection of their IPMNs.
Methods: A total of 179 patients underwent pancreatic resection for IPMN from 1998 to 2011 at
our institute. Data was entered prospectively. Following review of scoring system from Shin et al. [4]
(World J Surg 2010), primary data extracted from the database included the following information
for each patient: age, presence of mural nodule, MPD dilation, CA19-9, history of pancreatitis,
tumor size, duct communication (side, main, or mixed), and final pathology reports. This scoring
system uses five independent variables: the presence of mural nodules, MPD diameter >6 mm, CA
19-9 >37 U/mL, history of pancreatitis, and age =60 years. One point was given to each variable.
Validation of the scoring system was performed using a ROC analysis.
Results: Records of 98 patients included all five variables. Analysis showed that a cut-off of 3 points
had the highest discriminating power. The associated risk ratio (RR) was 3.13 (95% CI: 1.51-6.49)
and could predict IPMN malignancy with a sensitivity of 73.2% and a specificity of 80.7% (AUC:
0.81, 95% CI: 0.73-0.89). Additional analysis performed on side-branch variant of IPMN and mixed
type (71 cases) for the cut-off of 3 points also showed the highest discrimination in predicting
malignancy in IPMN. The RR was 6.49 (95% CI: 2.41-17.7) with a sensitivity of 84.6% and specificity
of 86.7% (AUC: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.82-0.96).
Conclusion: The 5-point scoring system described by Shin et al. [4] was successfully validated and
can be used to reliably predict malignancy in IPMN in both main branch and side/mixed cases
of IPMN. This scoring system may assist clinicians in predicting malignancy in the preoperative
patient with IPMN and is especially useful with the side branch and mixed variant.